Thursday, August 11, 2011

Know Your Enemies 2011/2: Part 2

The second part of my assessment of our opponents (first part here).

Norwich

Premier League let's be 'avin' ya! Football just never seems to lose its capacity to astound and astonish, does it? On the first day of the 2009/10 season, Norwich were beaten 7-1 at home by Colchester in League One. Two years later and they're kicking off in the top flight - with the man who masterminded that opening day thrashing the architect of the extraordinary renaissance at Carrow Road. If there's any justice, Paul Lambert will be unsackable - but that doesn't allow for the madness and cruelty of life in this division (see West Brom, below).

The Canaries' bold summer recruitment policy - which has seen them scour the divisions from which they've just escaped - was the subject of comment on this blog last month. Steve Morison, Anthony Pilkington and Elliott Bennett are all intriguing signings, but can they cut it at the highest level? Morison faces a battle just to get into the team, with Grant Holt, Simeon Jackson, Chris Martin and fellow arrival James Vaughan all vying for the striking roles. Elsewhere, Spurs loanee Kyle Naughton will have vice-captain Russell Martin, the "Norfolk Cafu", worrying that he won't repeat last season's feat of playing every single minute. No time for dissent in the ranks, though, if Norwich are to avoid relegation and an epitaph of "Too much too soon".

Recommended blog: Little Norwich

QPR

Another shot at the big time for Colin Wanker, whose odds of returning to the top flight looked slim to none following Sheffield Utd's contentious relegation in 2007. No doubt the Marmite of managers will be disappointed not to have the chance to exact revenge on the dastardly Hammers, but, unusually for someone who's just steered his club to a convincing Championship title, he'll be grateful just to have a job at all. Rumour has it that Rangers' billionaire backers came close to replacing the meat-and-spuds Yorkshireman with a marquee manager over the summer - which would certainly explain their extreme reticence to trust him with any funds.

That new faces have finally started to arrive suggests Wanker's position is secure for the time being, at least, and he in turn has placed his faith in a new-look strikeforce. Journeyman Jay Bothroyd has plenty to prove, having made little impression during previous Premier League stints and being desperate to lift the one-cap-wonder millstone off his neck, though DJ Campbell was an unexpected success for Blackpool last season. However, Rangers' hopes rest largely upon the whereabouts of mercurial playmaker Adel Taarabt on 1st September - if his agent gets his way, it won't be west London. Meanwhile, there's little danger of us being put to the sword by QPR's former Toon contingent - Peter Ramage has been sent on loan to Crystal Palace, while the Little Waster has probably already draped a towel of reservation over the physio's couch.

Recommended blog: QPR Report

Stoke

"Ruggedly uncompromising" would, I think, be a fair description of Stoke's established first-choice central defence: Ryan Shawcross, perhaps the only Premier League central defender not to be linked with Arsenal this summer (for obvious reasons), and Robert Huth, a square-jawed automaton with a knack for getting away with nasty off-the-ball fouls. So what is Tony Pulis up to with the free transfer signings of two of England's most cultured centre-backs, Jonathan Woodgate and Matthew Upson? Not that Shawcross and Huth should be too worried - the treatment room staff, however, will be petitioning for a pay rise.

Pulis has no truck with fancy formations, preferring a rigid 4-4-2 in which Matthew Etherington and Jermaine Pennant supply the width and the crosses, and little-and-large combo Kenwyne Jones and Jonathan Walters contribute the goals. Any acquisitions are expected to fit into the Potters' existing system - which explains why Tuncay left and why Peter Crouch and Wilson Palacios are rumoured targets. The latter would certainly help to beef up the losing FA Cup finalists' meagre central midfield, which boasts little more than Rory Delap's prodigious chuck, lethal weapon though it so often is.

Recommended blog: The Rock 'N' Roll Oatcake

Sunderland

What a contrast. Both ourselves and our dearest enemies have recently been the grateful beneficiaries of Liverpool's munificent preoccupation with young English talent, but while the £35m from the sale of Rocky remains largely in Jabba's wallet, the £20m the Mackems were lucky enough to extort for Jordan Henderson has been invested annoyingly wisely in all manner of directions. Two midfielders and former Toon targets have joined from Birmingham, Craig Gardner and Seb Larsson, while £9m teenager Connor Wickham has the task of taking some of the goalscoring heat off Asamoah Gyan. Like Alan Pardew with Gabriel Obertan, Ol' Cauliflower Face has been hoovering up around the fringes of the Man Utd squad, landing Wes Brown and John O'Shea for reasonable fees.

However, the loss of an intelligent probing midfielder in Steed Malbranque will hopefully prove costly, and red card magnet Lee Cattermole will with any justice finish the season wearing an ankle tag to go with his captain's armband. Keiren Westwood joins Simon Mignolet and Craig Gordon in a three-way battle to be the 'keeper who gets to pick the ball out of the Mackems' net five times at St James' on 3rd March. Finishing below the Great Unwashed last season, though not unexpected, still smarts given the manner in which we conceded our superior position, so we're out to restore the natural order.

Recommended blog: Roker Report

Swansea

Swansea have been the cause of some debate here at Black & White & Read All Over - specifically, are they this season's Blackpool? Paul says yes, pointing to their attractive brand of football, their status as play-off winners and their manager being a Premier League rookie. However, for my money the comparison is too facile and actually well wide of the mark. The Swans may have a commitment to being fluent and easy on the eye, but their footballing philosophy places equal if not more emphasis on firm foundations - a far cry from the Tangerines' Keegan-esque gung-hoism. What's more, Brendan Rodgers is an astute tactician - however you choose to describe Ian Holloway, an astute tactician he most certainly is not.

The combination of a watertight defence and pacy, fluid attack makes Swansea, of the three promoted sides, the best equipped for survival. Spurs loanee Stephen Caulker, a revelation during his stint at Bristol City last season, has joined Ashley Williams, Alan Tate and Garry Monk to help protect new Dutch 'keeper Michel Vorm, his compatriot Dorus de Vries having left for Wolves. The 4-3-3 formation, predicated on lightning-fast and skillful wingers like Scott Sinclair, is ideally suited to Wayne Routledge so he really ought to come good at the seventh attempt. Swansea's problem, though, has been finding the right spearhead - Danny Graham and Leroy Lita the latest to try their luck. Ekeing out entertaining 1-0 wins in the Championship may have become routine, but the Premier League is a lot tougher.

Recommended blog: none (feel free to suggest one)

Tottenham

Building your whole team around one individual - even one as good as Rafael van der Vaart, whom 'Appy 'Arry couldn't possibly turn down at a mere £8m last August - is a high-risk strategy. What if he gets injured? And what if the formation in which he's most effective doesn't suit other star players? Aaron Lennon and Gareth Bale have enjoyed marauding down Spurs' flanks, but Peter Crouch and Jermain Defoe - the latter arguably England's most instinctive finisher - have both suffered as a result of Redknapp's van-der-Vaart-friendly one-up-top policy.

Given the manager's notoriety as a seasoned wheeler-dealer, the lack of comings and goings at White Hart Lane is extraordinary. Few, I imagine, would have suspected that Spurs' only major signing of the summer so far would be a 40-year-old deferring retirement in favour of vying with Heurelho Gomes and Carlo Cudicini for the goalkeeper's jersey. In addition to transfer frustrations, Redknapp will have been wearied trying to keep pint-sized genius Luka Modric out of Chelsea's clutches (and at what cost to the wantaway Croatian's mindset?) and pondering how to solve his own versions of our mid-90s conundrums: how to fashion brilliant individual defenders into a cohesive, impermeable unit, and how to win games when your side is off-colour. Still, at least he's been granted a few more days to figure it out. Spurs remain a side capable of beating anyone - but things aren't looking quite as rosy now as they did twelve months ago, and the pursuit of a route back into the Champions League looks more hopeful than realistic.

Recommended blog: Dear Mr Levy

West Brom

A word of warning for Paul Lambert: there's little room for sentiment in a division in which patience is a virtue preached by managers but rarely practiced by chairmen. Roberto Di Matteo's managerial stock was high when West Brom boing-boinged back into the Premier League at the first attempt, and higher still when they beat Arsenal at the Emirates and he scooped the Manager of the Month award. So inevitably, with the Baggies in a spot of bother by early February, Jeremy Peace pulled the trigger without compunction and installed Woy Hodgson in Di Matteo's place. Sadly for opponents of the ruthless hire-'em-and-fire-'em strategy, the switch worked and the new manager steered them into mid-table, helping to banish his personal Anfield nightmare.

This term Hodgson will be pinning his hopes on several things: Youssuf Mulumbu and club captain Chris Brunt continuing their excellent form; £8m man Shane Long forging an instant partnership with one of last season's surprise stars, Peter Odemwingie; Ben Foster settling in quickly following his move from Birmingham out into the Black Country to replace fellow England squad 'keeper Scott Carson. We, meanwhile, would be well advised to keep a rather closer eye on winger Somen Tchoyi...

Recommended blog: none (feel free to suggest one)

Wigan

When your two summer signings are your player of the year from the previous campaign (Ali Al-Habsi, whose loan from Bolton has been made permanent at a cost of £4m) and someone released by Wolves (David Jones), then you know you're in big, big trouble. Creativity and goalscoring power in particular look conspicuous by their absence. Charles N'Somnia supplied both, but he's got his move to Villa, while Tom Cleverley is back to pressing his nose against the glass at Man Utd.

Hugo Rodallega can't be expected to do everything on his own - but Roberto Martinez should try telling that to Franco di Santo, the Argentinian still having the nerve to call himself a striker despite recording one poxy goal in 25 appearances (though it was against the Mackems, at least). Victor Moses will be one player grateful for N'Somnia's departure, but neither he nor his manager will be able to work miracles. If you're setting a quiz any time over the next ten months, I'd recommend taking the opportunity to ask the question "Which club has never been relegated from the top flight of English football?" If the Latics do go down, then don't expect us to shed any tears for bitter old duffer Dave Whelan.

Recommended blog: Jesus Was A Wiganer

Wolves

Like Wigan, Wolves have shelled out a sizeable fee to acquire a loan star permanently (Jamie O'Hara), but it's another deal which, certainly come May, could be hailed as the transfer coup of the season. Roger Johnson could surely have signed for a significantly bigger club - with Arsenal in the market for a commanding centre-half, for a start - but Wolves acted decisively to get their man early, promptly installing him as skipper. The only slight concern is that at Birmingham he was at his best as part of a double act with Scott Dann - can he go it alone, so to speak?

As might be expected of a gruff Yorkshireman who wouldn't dream of calling a spade a rectangular-bladed digging device, Mick McCarthy favours a robust 4-4-2 with a pair of dangerous wingers, Stephen Hunt and Matt Jarvis, feeding Kevin Doyle and Steven Fletcher up front. Nenad Milijas remains arguably their most skillful player, but there's rarely room for him alongside cynical ASBO-maimer Karl Henry. With Wolves now established as a Premier League club, complacency might come creeping into the dressing room - though if it does, expect McCarthy to give it a firm clip around the ear.

Recommended blog: Wolves Blog

* * * * *

So that's the competition surveyed. Tomorrow Paul assesses our own prospects - minus Kevin Nolan and Jose Enrique but plus a whole load of French-speakers - and ventures to predict a final league table.

Labels: ,

Share

Monday, August 08, 2011

Know Your Enemies 2011/2: Part 1

With the new season kicking off on Saturday, it's time to kick off our usual multi-part preview. Later in the week Paul will be reflecting on a summer of turmoil at St James' Park (what's new?) and offering his thoughts on our prospects for the forthcoming campaign, before predicting how the final Premier League table will shape up. First, though, are my verdicts on our opponents.

Arsenal

For this year, you could - pretty much - just see last year. Marouane Chamakh having faded after a bright opening to the season, Arsene Wenger has invested in another striker, Lille's Ivory Coast international Gervinho, to line up alongside a crop of supremely talented young players (Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain just the latest) whose football can, at times, be divine.

However, the problems remain the same too. At the time of writing at least, star players Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri are still Gunners despite the persistent advances of attractive suitors, but at what cost to their state of mind? Arsenal's perpetual soft-centredness from goalkeeper through central defence and into midfield, as exemplified by the League Cup final and that history-making collapse on Tyneside, hasn't been addressed (though if it were to be before the month's out, they could be a different prospect). Gael Clichy's defection to Man City is symbolic of the shift in the balance of power at the summit of the league, and the fitness of Thomas Vermaelen, Jack Wilshere and Robin van Persie is key to them standing any chance of winning silverware for the first time since 2005.

Recommended blog: Arseblog

Aston Villa

A lesson in how to gain revenge on your neighbours, gloating at your relegation: pack off your gaffer to fill their managerial vacancy and repeat the trick with them. How long before Villa's famously grumpy support starts rounding on ex-Blues boss Alex McLeish? My money's on about ten minutes into their opening fixture. Managers all plead to be allowed time, but McLeish's pleas will be more desperate than most.

Last season Villa were a poor side propelled into mid-table by a three-pronged England attack. Darren Bent - a player I can concede is a goalscoring menace now that he's no longer a Mackem - is the sole member of the trio left at Villa Park, Ashley Young and Stewart Downing having departed for Man Utd and Liverpool respectively. The blow of their loss will be cushioned somewhat by the acquisition of Charles N'Somnia, and effectively swapping 40-year-old Brad Friedel for N'Somnia's sprightlier former Toon team-mate Shay Given was an astute move (we know ourselves the Irishman's value in preserving unlikely points). But a mid-table finish beckons, followed - or, more likely, preceded - by the boot for McLeish.

Recommended blog: Aston Villa Blog

Blackburn

And so to another prime candidate to win the sack race. Steve Kean, a man whose long-term employment prospects look about as good as Mr T's chances of avoiding a booking this season, has claimed Blackburn will be in the Champions League in four years. If that's what owners Venky's have targeted, then they're going a funny way about it: sticking an inexperienced stooge in the hotseat, flogging off their brightest young talent (Phil Jones) and spending precious little of their cash. Perhaps Kean meant the Championship? If so, then it's likely to be sooner than 2015.

A negative image of Arsenal, Blackburn are strong in goal and central defence, with Paul Robinson, Chris Samba and Ryan Nelsen, but pitifully weak everywhere else. The only real exception is David "Junior" Hoilett, the pacy 21-year-old Canadian forward having allegedly caught our eye. Their other supposed superstar of the future, Croatian Nikola Kalinic, is desperate to leave and on the verge of joining Dnipro, while opposition fans' favourite El-Hadji Diouf has been censured for reporting late for pre-season training and told to sling his hook by Kean. At least Rovers have a ready-made replacement workie ticket in Scottish striker David Goodwillie, who at the age of 22 has already been fined twice for assault and has only just escaped a court appearance for sexual assault due to insufficient evidence.

Recommended blog: Vital Blackburn Rovers

Bolton

Another Lancashire side seemingly going backwards. Owen Coyle has worked wonders in translating the Trotters' prosaic hoof 'n' hope into lyrical poetry with the help of Stuart Holden, Mark Davies and Martin Petrov, amongst others, so the recruitment of Nigel Reo-Coker - the equivalent of the proverbial blue-arsed fly, buzzing with energy but devoid of any discernible footballing talent - is something of a mystery. At least his arrival has been counterbalanced by fellow new boys Darren Pratley and Chris Eagles, both creative types, though more used to unlocking Championship defences.

Coyle's biggest worry, you'd imagine, would be where the goals are going to come from. Daniel Sturridge, a revelation on loan last season, has returned to the sidelines at Stamford Bridge, and Johan Elmander, who finally hit form in the final year of his contract, has slunk off to Galatasaray, leaving Kevin Davies and Ivan Klasnic, neither of whom are prolific goalscorers. Pre-season has been particularly unkind to the Trotters, with Lee Chung-Yong and Tyrone Mears both suffering broken legs, but the retention of Gary Cahill could be crucial.

Recommended blog: Manny Road

Chelsea

The question on everyone's lips: surely Fernando Torres can't be as bad again? Chelsea must have hoped that a change of employer would perk up a striker who hasn't played well since before the World Cup - but no, following his £50m move from Liverpool he continued to trudge around Premier League pitches, a forlorn figure for whom the weight of expectation seemed too heavy. At least he'll have some sympathy from his new manager, Andre Villas-Boas, already burdened by unfair (if understandable) comparisons to Jose Mourinho as well as Roman Abramovich's high expectations.

At 33, Villas-Boas is the same age as some of his senior players, which says as much about the squad he's inherited as it does about his own precocious ability. Among the Chelsea Pensioners are John Terry, who isn't the infallible machine he once was, and Didier Drogba, who looks an increasingly spent force. Fat Frank Lampard and Florent Malouda are key figures in a midfield in which Ramires gradually blossomed last season, while David Luiz, at half the price of Torres, was a classy addition in central defence. However, the long-term injury to Michael Essien will put pressure on John Obi Mikel. The challenge remains to emulate Man Utd and Arsenal in successfully integrating youth into the side - Daniel Sturridge, Patrick van Aanholt, Josh McEachran, Gael Kakuta and teenage recruits Oriol Romeu and Romelu Lukaku are no doubt all desperate for action.

Recommended blog: The Chelsea Blog

Everton

If the manager of one of Everton's early-season opponents defends a disjointed performance on the grounds of new players taking time to settle and gel, don't expect much sympathy from David Moyes. The Scot, set to kick off the new campaign with the same squad that finished in May, would no doubt kill for some new blood (and, with that eye-bulging stare, you wouldn't put it past him to do so). The Toffees look thinnest up front, with just Jermaine Beckford and Yakubu sufficiently qualified to pick up the pieces when (as is inevitable) Louis Saha is out injured.

But on the flip side, the sought-after likes of Phil Jagielka, Leighton Baines and Jack Rodwell remain at Goodison Park, and their strength continues to lie in a clutch of hard-working forward-thinking midfielders - Tim Cahill, Mikel Arteta, Marouane Fellaini, Leon Osman - plus recently emergent talent Seamus Coleman giving them youthful vigour and pace on the right flank. Seventh place is - as ever - theirs for the taking, but securing it with certainty might just demand a little investment.

Recommended blog: none (feel free to suggest one)

Fulham

The club living in the west London shadows of Abramovich's nouveau riche mob having once again defied the odds to finish comfortably in mid-table, there's no shame in calling yourself a Cottager - except, perhaps, when buffoonish owner Mohammed Al-Fayed unveils the next statue of an 80s pop icon with a spurious connection to Fulham. Cyndi Lauper, anyone?

Al-Fayed's side got into Europe on account of being nice - how very English - and the resultant early kick-off means they'll have little excuse for not hitting the ground running in the Premier League. A small squad has been bolstered with the addition of up-and-coming continental midfielders Marcel Gecov and Pajtim Kasami, while Bjorn Helge Riise now has brother John Arne for company, but the spine has stayed the same - Brede Hangeland the granite-hewn giant at the back, Danny Murphy pulling the midfield strings, Moussa Dembele working magic on the left and strikers Bobby Zamora, Clint Dempsey and Andy Johnson supplying the finishes. The only real question mark hangs over the new manager, Mark Hughes having curiously decided to bail out in June, but Martin Jol already has Premier League experience and was harshly treated at Spurs so returns to England with a point to prove.

Recommended blog: Craven Cottage Newsround

Liverpool

For every pre-season prediction that, with hindsight, you can be smug about getting pretty much spot on, there's at least one that's embarrassingly wide of the mark. So excuse me while I wipe the egg from my face, having confidently declared last August that Roy Hodgson and Joe Cole would both be a perfect match for Liverpool. But, at the risk of finding myself eggy-faced again this time next year, I'm once more going to forecast good things for the Reds.

First and foremost, January's extraordinary post-Hodgson spending spree assembled potentially the most lethal strikeforce in the division, Uruguay's skillful and mobile Luis Suarez being paired with our very own one-man wrecking ball Rocky. Provided the latter can keep himself out of both the treatment room and police cells, Fernando Torres will be a distant memory. Stewart Downing and Charlie Adam have been brought in to supply the ammunition - both are great signings, though I'm much less convinced about the £20m splurged on the Mackems' Jordan Henderson and also curious to know how the midfield additions will impact upon Lucas and Raul Meireles, two players instrumental in the Scousers' revival under Kenny Dalglish. Meanwhile, no left-back at all is probably preferable to Paul Konchesky, now busy finding his level in the Championship with Sven's Leicester, but Dalglish will know it's a position that desperately needs filling - quite probably with Jose Enrique.

Recommended blog: The Tomkins Times

Man City

Rather like your typical millionaire footballer's "crib", Eastlands is decked out showily with all manner of expensive trinkets, but the overall effect is neither classy nor very often even aesthetically pleasing. Roberto Mancini's attempts to fashion a collective unit out of a disparate bunch of brilliant if overpriced and overpaid players have thus far borne fruit in the form of the FA Cup and Champions League qualification but not in terms of a genuine title challenge. This summer, though, they've muscled their way into position as the most likely gatecrashers of Chelsea and cross-city rivals Utd's cosy championship-winning club.

To the likes of Yaya Toure (an increasingly dominant force as last season wore on) and David Silva (nimble and probing across the front line - if Mancini gives him licence), City have added Argentinian striker Sergio Aguero, French left-back Gael Clichy and Montenegro defender Stefano Savic - all excellent acquisitions. The defence being superbly marshalled by Vincent Kompany, a relatively unsung hero, Mancini's concerns are focused primarily on forward areas: how to persuade an unhappy Carlos Tevez to stay, how to compensate for his potential departure, how to get the best out of Edin Dzeko. The poor chap would have quite enough headaches over selection without also having Mario "The Power" Balotelli to handle...

Recommended blog: Bitter And Blue

Man Utd

Liverpool's title-winning record has been surpassed, thereby completing Taggart's stated mission to "knock them off their perch" - and yet the man who celebrates goals like an 80-year-old blue-rinsed biddy with a full house hasn't called it quits. Far from it: he's spent the summer strengthening his squad in preparation for another season of putting the Scousers - and their upstart "noisy neighbours" City - firmly in their place. The addition of Ashley Young to Nani and Antonio Valencia will have opposing full-backs waking up in a cold sweat, while their central defence looks more robust than ever with the arrival of Phil Jones. And then there's Wayne Rooney, the most complete striker in the Premier League.

There are a few crumbs of comfort for the Red Devils' rivals to cling to, though. Paul Scholes and Edwin van der Sar have both done what Taggart has refused to do and retired - the latter in particular could be a big loss if his £18.3m teenage replacement David de Gea doesn't get yesterday's miserable debut in the Charity Shield out of his system quickly. A few injuries and the sale of fringe defenders Wes Brown and John O'Shea could come back to haunt Taggart, while up front Javier Hernandez starts the campaign sidelined through injury and last season's Dimitar Berbatov top scorer is strangely out of favour (and no doubt sulking). But no doubt that, once again, they're the team to beat.

Recommended blog: Republik of Mancunia

* * * * *

Part 2 to follow in the next couple of days.

Labels: ,

Share